World Test Championship and the chances of India reaching the finals
Like most things in the world in 2020, the inaugural World Test Championship also got the bashing of COVID-19. As a result, the points system, which was plain and simple, with each series containing 120 points and each team playing six series which would include three home and three away, had to be altered as well.
Courtesy of this altering, the Indian team, which was cruising towards Lord's for the 2021 Grand Finale of the first WTC, got a scare with a 0-2 series loss at the hand s of New Zealand and then a humiliating loss at Adelaide to start the Australia tour. Since then it was all one way fro India with two wins and a draw to end that series. At the end of that series that table looks something like this.
T
S
SW
P
W
L
Pts
Draw
PCT
IND
5
4
13
9
3
430
1
71.7
NZ
5
3
11
7
4
420
0
70.0
AUS
4
2
14
8
4
332
2
69.2
ENG
5
4
17
10
4
412
3
68.7
PAK
6
2
11
3
5
226
3
37.7
RSA
4
1
10
3
7
144
0
34.3
SL
4
0
8
1
6
80
1
16.7
WI
3
0
7
1
6
40
0
11.1
BAN
2
0
3
0
3
0
0
00.0
To understand the logic behind the table, we need to go back to decision which was taken by the ICC after the covid-19 changed the schedule of a lot of series. Here is how the table works.
POP System of Rankings
Owing to the pandemic, the International Cricket Council (ICC) cricket committee - headed by Anil Kumble - recommended that the points for the WTC be counted through percentage method instead of the usual points system. The Percentage of Points or POP system meant that the number of points scored by the teams would be divided by the total amount of points available to be won and thus the result would be the percentage of points.
For example, India has won 360 points in four series that it has played so far. Now, the four series according to the rule of each series having 120 points, had a total of 480 points. So India’s POP ranking at the end of those four series would be 360 divided by 480 which is equal to 0.75 and if it is converted into a percentage, then it is 75%.
So on this pattern, all teams are being ranked. According to the previous system, India was at the top by the virtue of points - 360. However now, Australia because of their better POP ( 296 points from 360 maximum available, which gives them 82.2%) is at the top of the table.
Now that New Zealand are through to the finals of the World Test Championship finals, courtesy Australia postponing thier tour of South Africa, the fight is now between India and England. Indirectly even Australia is in the fight. Here are the scenarios which could lead to the qualification of these three teams to the World Test Championship.
Different scenarios for India to reach the WTC final
The case of India is simple. If India wins two tests and gets a draw out in the series, it is simply through to the finals and England and Australia then have no chance of qualifying. This is because, with two wins and a draw, India would have 500 points out of a possible 720 which would translate to 69.4% in terms of POP, which would be more than Australia's 69.2% and England's 62.7%, and that's how they go through. This is the minimum that India needs to get to play the World Test Championship Finals at Lord's.
But what if there are rains and a match gets washed out, in such conditions the points would be split, so each team would get 15 points in case of the India - England series as this contains 30 points for each game. Match getting washed out due to rain is a rare scenario, but even if that happens, Indis would still need to not let England win more than one game to make sure that they reach the finals.
How's the road for others!
Australia
For the Kangaroos, the road has gotten tougher ever since they lost the home series against India. All the Aussie hopes would ironically be pinned England and they would wish for England to win more than one game in India to make sure that India does not cross the 69.2% barrier. If the English are not even able to win a single game then the Baggy Greens and their fans would want the Poms to at least make sure that India down not win more than one game. And even if India manages to win more than one game, then England goes on to win two as well.
But there is another twist in the tale, which is, the Australians wouldn't want England to win more than two games either. So the progression of Tim Paine' men to the WTC finals is totally dependent upon both the teams not playing their best form of cricket and drawing the series 0-0 or 1-1. And if not, then both the teams playing their best form of cricket and drawing the series 2-2. The Australians can't afford one team to dominate the entire course of the series.
England
For England to go through the scenario is pretty simple, they have to win more than two games. With their unexpected but brilliant 2-0 series win against Sri Lanka, they have given themselves a chance to make it to Lord's for the all-important WTC finale. But for that to happen, they need to win the series either 3-1 or 3-0 or 4-0. losing more than one game could be fatal for their chances of moving ahead. They are at 412 points and can get up to a maximum of 532 out of 720, which equals to 73.8%. But even if they manage to win three games and lose one, they would reach to 502, which would take them to 69.72% and that would be more than Australia's 69.2 to go through to final.
But if England manages to win just two games, their chances perish dramatically as they fall behind the 69.2% barrier. With two wins and two draws, they could get only up to 492 points, which is equal to 68.3% and less than 69.2%, thereby pushing the Aussies into the finals. Thus for them to qualify, more than two wins are required. But if they could not get more than one win in the first three Tests, they can always spoil India's chances of going ahead by either winning or drawing the fourth test, if they have had a win in the previous three.