What Should India, Australia And South Africa Do To Qualify For WTC 2025 Final?

Aakash Saini

WTC 2025 qualification scenarios [Source: AP]WTC 2025 qualification scenarios [Source: AP]

The fight for a spot in the WTC 2025 Final has intensified into a thrilling three-horse race, with India, Australia, and South Africa vying for supremacy on the grand stage of Test cricket. The Sri Lankan team, a fellow contender up until a week ago, did itself no favours by losing its two-match rubber in South Africa 0-2. 

New Zealand, winners of the inaugural edition back in 2021, also bowed out of the race for the finals after crashing to two humiliating defeats against England at home. The Englishmen, for all the hype around their so-called ‘BazBall’ routine, suffered nine defeats out of 21 Tests during the current Championship cycle. 

The Pakistan cricket team, on the other hand, attained its winning rhythm a little-too-late for comfort, considering their twin wins over England was preceded by a string of six straight defeats. As collision course for the WTC 2025 final heats up, here we take a look at the entire qualification scenario of each of the three leading contenders at the moment.

WTC 2025 Final Qualification Scenario

3. India

Current PCT: 57.29, WTC Ranking: 3

India [Source: @BCCI/x]India [Source: @BCCI/x]

Team India slipped to number three on the WTC 2023-25 points table following their 10-wicket drubbing in Adelaide’s Pink-Ball event and South Africa’s 109-run demolition of Sri Lanka. As of now, Rohit Sharma’s drawcards hold a PCT of 57.29, with nine wins and six defeats from 16 Tests since July 2023.

Currently in Australia for the 2024-25 Border-Gavaskar Trophy, the Indian cricket team must win at least two of its remaining three fixtures against the hosts. Although Team India triumphed in their previous two BGT rubbers ‘Down Under’ and qualified with ease for each of the last two WTC finals, the path to replicating that feat this time appears an uphill task, especially considering Australia’s recent resurgence at the Adelaide Oval.

India’s quest to qualify for a third consecutive WTC final will continue with the third BGT Test at The Gabba, a venue that stood as Australia’s fortress for over three decades until it was breached a couple of Australian summers ago.

2. Australia

Current PCT: 60.71, WTC Ranking: 2

Australia [Source: @cricketcomau/x]Australia [Source: @cricketcomau/x]

Reigning WTC holders Australia have secured nine wins from their 14 matches thus far. Twin defeats and a drawn Test during the 2023 Ashes in England, a jolting loss to the West Indies at The Gabba, and a 295-run larruping at the hands of familiar nemesis India last month continue to remain Australia’s only five matches this cycle where they failed to generate their ideal WTC points.

Following the last of those defeats, Pat Cummins’ pantheons recently orchestrated a remarkable comeback against India to bring their five-match Border-Gavaskar Trophy series to levelling terms after the second Test. With five matches still left in the bank, including two away fixtures in Sri Lanka, Australia need to win at least three of them to get a crack at title-defence at Lord’s next year.

1. South Africa

Current PCT: 63.33, WTC Ranking: 1

South Africa [Source: @ProteasMenCSA/x]South Africa [Source: @ProteasMenCSA/x]

Currently on a five-match winning streak and a six-match unbeaten run, perennial underachievers South Africa rightfully dethroned India and Australia to claim the top spot on the 2023-25 WTC points table earlier this month. The South African juggernaut commenced with a 1-0 win during their two-match series in the Caribbean back in August, and continued with 2-0 hammerings of Bangladesh and Sri Lanka in away and home series, respectively.

Needless to say, had the South African players not prioritised the SA20 2024 season over the all-important Test tour of New Zealand earlier this year, Temba Bavuma’s troops might well have secured their tickets to London for next June by now.

As of now, a two-match home series against Pakistan remains South Africa’s only impediment between a spot in the WTC 2025 final and another pre-knockout exit from an ICC event. After considering all permutations and combinations, the equation indicates that even a single win will suffice for the rampaging Proteas to script their first-ever WTC final appearance.